Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 0.022396 0.025421 0.028729 0.032619 0.037074 0.042022 0.047942
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 0.017311 0.021326 0.026111 0.032253 0.039953 0.049320 0.061634
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.014567 0.018946 0.024471 0.031990 0.042012 0.054987 0.073183
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.013041 0.017732 0.023937 0.032803 0.045239 0.062202 0.087329
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.011504 0.016242 0.022763 0.032475 0.046707 0.067012 0.098553
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.010698 0.015628 0.022667 0.033556 0.050169 0.074878 0.114993
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.009441 0.014207 0.021227 0.032450 0.050189 0.077550 0.123737
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.008530 0.013191 0.020262 0.031919 0.050960 0.081352 0.134575
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.007596 0.012040 0.018962 0.030699 0.050452 0.082984 0.141912
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.007285 0.011841 0.019130 0.031847 0.053917 0.091455 0.161863
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.006997 0.011646 0.019275 0.032950 0.057389 0.100255 0.183394
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.006708 0.011417 0.019334 0.033896 0.060655 0.108993 0.205807
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.006197 0.010773 0.018645 0.033483 0.061487 0.113520 0.221009
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.005749 0.010203 0.018036 0.033157 0.062452 0.118410 0.237585
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.005356 0.009694 0.017488 0.032882 0.063463 0.123459 0.255059
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.005153 0.009516 0.017525 0.033720 0.066726 0.133280 0.283771
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.004816 0.009056 0.016992 0.033382 0.067574 0.138263 0.302606
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.004685 0.008976 0.017177 0.034495 0.071524 0.150125 0.338341
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.004306 0.008382 0.016305 0.033357 0.070578 0.151373 0.349748
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.004025 0.007960 0.015743 0.032810 0.070849 0.155299 0.367962
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.003695 0.007414 0.014886 0.031553 0.069418 0.155232 0.376424
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.003630 0.007408 0.015138 0.032735 0.073621 0.168574 0.420172
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.003562 0.007389 0.015362 0.033871 0.077832 0.182396 0.467087